According to the Associated Press (AP), the United States of America (USA) tariffs and worsening climate conditions are putting the livelihoods of Brazil’s small-scale coffee farmers at risk, particularly in regions reliant on exports to the United States. The tariffs, imposed under former US President Donald Trump’s administration, were framed as a political response to the trial of his ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. In a public letter, Trump called Bolsonaro’s trial a “witch hunt” related to allegations that he attempted to overturn the 2022 election loss to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, exporting around 85% of its total output, with the US accounting for roughly 16% of those exports, according to Márcio Ferreira, president of the Brazilian exporters’ council, Cecafé. “We believe the US will continue importing Brazilian coffee, even with the hefty tariff,” said Ferreira. However, experts warn the tariffs will hurt competitiveness, particularly for small farmers. A global agribusiness Professor at Insper business school in São Paulo, Leandro Gilio noted, “There’s no way we can quickly redirect our coffee production to other markets. This principally affects small producers, who have less financial power to make investments or support themselves in a period like this.”
Two thirds of Brazilian coffee comes from family farmers, mainly in the north-western region of Rio de Janeiro state, a hub of coffee production. In municipalities such as Porciúncula, coffee farming is the primary economic activity, with mountains layered in orderly coffee shrubs. The sector is also grappling with climate pressures, as increasingly dry and unpredictable weather has further reduced margins for smallholders.
By July, the price of arabica coffee beans had fallen 33% from their peak in February, according to commodity price reports from the University of São Paulo’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics. Combined, tariffs and climate challenges are creating a perfect storm that threatens the economic survival of Brazil’s small-scale coffee producers, highlighting the vulnerability of family farms in the global export market.
