Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are inching back toward the Suez Canal and freight markets are already reacting, shares in both shipping groups fell on Monday as the companies confirmed plans to resume some sailings through the route under their joint Gemini network.
The Asia-Europe corridor through Suez was largely abandoned after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea forced shippers onto the far longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Maersk’s statement framed the move as incremental rather than a full reversal, “This joint decision with Hapag-Lloyd comes after thorough assessments of the security situation in the Red Sea area and marks a step towards a gradual return to the trans-Suez corridor.” Changes to the AE15 service, which links Asia, the Mediterranean and Europe, will cut four weeks off the passage, according to a Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson.
The Suez-Red Sea corridor is the fastest link between Europe and Asia and accounted for 10% of global seaborne trade before the attacks began, according to Clarksons Research data. The forced detour around Africa pushed shipping rates higher across the board, making the potential return to Suez a freight-rate story as much as a security one. For miners and commodity exporters relying on Asia-Europe trade lanes, the shift carries direct cost implications on both sides of the equation. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd say they have no plans yet to alter any other Gemini services and stressed the decision remains conditional. “Any alteration to services within the Gemini Cooperation will remain dependent on the ongoing stability in the Red Sea area and absence of any escalation in conflicts in the region,” noted the companies.
Shares in Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd fell 5.8% and 2.7% respectively by 1251 GMT, as investors priced in the risk that returning capacity to the shorter route could compress freight rates. Jyske Bank Analyst Haider Anjum framed the move as an early marker of a bigger shift. He said, “We view this as the first step that will pave the way for a full return to the Red Sea by the end of this year. A full return, combined with new vessel deliveries in 2027 and 2028, should put pressure on freight rates and consequently, on shipping companies’ earnings.”
The companies have tested these waters before. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd resumed their joint ME11 service, connecting India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean via Suez in mid-February, with vessels sailing under naval escort, only to suspend Red Sea transits again in late February after the outbreak of the Iran war, Maersk said in a separate statement recently. For an industry still calibrating capacity around a security situation that has flipped several times in the past year, this latest move looks less like a decisive turn and more like a hedge, one shippers are prepared to reverse again if conditions in the Red Sea deteriorate.
