Clarksons Securities has raised its earnings forecasts for Danish shipping company AP Moller-Maersk but maintained its sell recommendation, citing concerns over container vessel capacity.
Analyst Frode Morkedal increased his full-year EBITDA estimate to US$14.3 billion from US$11.1 billion, exceeding Maersk’s guidance of US$10.5 billion to US$12.5 billion. The 2027 forecast was raised to US$13.1 billion from US$7 billion.
Freight rates, cargo demand, and port congestion continue to support earnings. However, Clarksons expects vessel capacity to increase as shipping lines resume Suez Canal routes and new vessels enter service.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are among the carriers returning Asia-Europe services through Suez, reducing voyage durations and freeing up capacity elsewhere.
Clarksons forecasts low-single-digit growth in effective vessel demand against fleet growth of around 7 per cent in 2027. By 2028, fleet growth could reach 10 per cent, compared with demand growth of 4 per cent.
Meanwhile, Fearnley Securities upgraded Maersk from hold to buy in September, arguing that supply chain disruptions and terminal congestion could keep freight rates elevated for longer.
Source: tradewindsnews.com
