The government forecasts that coal production will reach a new high of over 22 million tons in 2026, marking a 15% increase compared to this year. This growth follows a gradual recovery of the sector after operational constraints between 2023 and 2025, according to data in the supporting documents for the 2026 Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE), currently under review by the Assembly of the Republic.
Projections indicate 9.3 million tons of coking coal for steel production and 13.1 million tons of thermal coal for power generation, both reflecting a 15% growth. The government notes that improvements in processing plants in Tete province will support this increase, although international coal prices may face slight pressure from the global shift toward clean energy.
The report highlights the sector’s recent trajectory: 14.8 million tons in 2022, 14.9 million in 2023, 16.3 million in 2024 and a projected 19 million in 2025, confirming a steady rebound. Production is dominated by Indian company Vulcan, which has produced over 35 million tons since acquiring Vale’s Moatize mine and the Nacala Logistics Corridor railway network in 2022.
Despite coal’s historical role as Mozambique’s main export, natural gas overtook coal in first-quarter 2025 sales, reaching 36 billion meticais (USD 567.7 million), compared with coal at 19.1 billion meticais (USD 300.8 million). Aluminum exports also surpassed coal, rising to 24.2 billion meticais (USD 380.7 million) due to a nearly 90% increase in global prices. These shifts were linked to temporary mine closures, weather-related railway disruptions and post-election transport blockages.
Looking ahead, the government expects coal to remain a central pillar of Mozambique’s economy, even as the global energy landscape continues to transform, underpinned by ongoing industrial recovery and increased production capacity.
