South Africa’s maize exports are running ahead of last year’s pace even as a looming El Niño draws attention to the season ahead, a divergence that comes down to one factor, the return of Far East demand that had gone quiet the previous season.
The Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), Wandile Shilbo said exports since the start of the 2026-27 marketing year in May have now reached 760,015 tons of the expected 3 million tons for the season, a target that would represent a 50% increase over the 2025-26 marketing year. “Each week, we continue to see notable export volumes to the Far Eastern countries and the Southern African region,” revealed Sihlobo.
The constraint last season wasn’t supply, it was demand. “Last season, the challenge was not the supply but weak demand in the Far Eastern countries, which have now returned. African countries remain the notable buyers but the return of Far East markets, which import large volumes, is encouraging,” said Sihlobo. He also pointed to the resumption of shipments to Vietnam, South Korea and Japan in the new 2026-27 marketing year. Previously, African countries, primarily Zimbabwe, were the dominant buyers of South African maize.
The near-term numbers illustrate the shift concretely as South Africa exported 50,998 tons of maize in a single recent week, with about 60% going to Vietnam, 13% to Zimbabwe and the remainder to neighbouring countries, part of the broader 760,015-ton total recorded so far this marketing year. Underpinning the export push is an exceptionally strong domestic supply position. South Africa is expecting a record maize harvest of 17.3 million tons this season, against annual domestic consumption of about 12 million tons, a surplus wide enough, combined with carry-over stocks from the previous season, that Sihlobo sees no risk to domestic availability from the export volumes. “The exports present no risk to domestic supplies and the coming weeks will likely continue producing similarly encouraging export figures,” said Sihlobo.
The 2025-26 production season that’s now generating this surplus had its own complications, a late start pushed the harvest timeline back. By the eleventh week since the new marketing year began in May 2026, farmers had delivered about 7.8 million tons of maize to commercial silos, running roughly 10% behind the previous season’s pace. Sihlobo noted some of that gap likely reflects on-farm storage distorting delivery timing, and said the harvest may run through to September, just weeks before the next season begins. Despite the delay, he described most of the maize as remaining in good condition, meaning the late harvest hasn’t materially undermined the expected ample supply.
Sihlobo framed the strong harvest and export pace as a genuinely reassuring position heading into an uncertain 2026-27 season. He stated, “This is a comforting position ahead of what may be a challenging El Niño drought season from October 2026 onwards. This year’s record supply is a buffer against the risks a drier planting season could bring.”
FNB’s Head of Agriculture Marketing and Information, Dawie Maree, welcomed the export growth as a straightforward win for the sector and the broader economy. He ended, “We have a record harvest and large carry-over stock. The more we can export the better for our grain industry. Also earning much needed foreign income which is good for our balance of payments.”
